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Thursday, January 14, 2010

AU




The images above + the CFTC hearings + the over all technical picture make me think ASIA/LON session will be hopping for AU , AG, /DX



The technical triggers on the longs should start triggering soon.






Waiting for the ML to resolve on this chart, if it gaps I'm adding to /YI +1

Monday, January 11, 2010

NetFlix

I forgot to finish this last week, we wanted to find out if NetFlix is a good value relative to content they sell/rent. First a quick look at historical ticket prices.




So the question you need to ask yourself is Avatar(2010) better that 2001: A Space Odyssey(1968)? Totally subjective, but it forms that basis of the analysis. To my taste, the answer is no (by a wide margin), next Netflix plans:




If you believe that movies are roughly 3x better than circa 1970, you are getting a deal, if not you need to downgrade to the next plan.


Finally the value, again it's subjective but in my case (criteria) I want better stories, no sequels and I don't want to pay for repackaging old content.

Industry hails Warren Buffet because he repackaged Disney classics, that's correct, you get accolades in current times for coprophagy. My guess is that it would have taken less time and money to have an indy derivative that spotlighted new talent - oh well.


AUDUSD




Price has flatlined, I'll wait for the bottom of the channel to break to SL and conserve margin for a more active pair.

AU




Looks like the next leg up to high 1600 region (to me). There is a CFTC open hearing on position limits and a 30yr. TIPS auction on the 18th.





I'll wait and see what happens around 2-3AMCT , if the support breaks (forming on M30) I'll go back to bed is it looks like it's going to gap the (ML) ... I'll be up.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

AUDUSD




Looking to scalp this as long as the trend is in place

USDCAD




Adding a little more to this shooting for a swing trade at parity.

USDX



Looks clear to me that the ML will be hit, based on and the /ES correlation, I'm going to give /ESa shot. The next resistance looks like 76.8, my guess is that will be blown through but I'll wait and see what the instruments say when we get closer. R1 (to me) looks like the next target for price if that hold it will make trading simpler.

AG




Dashed red line is the sliding parallel, a better entry can be found by seeing what happens at the MLH if a gap down (per theory) then an entry can be taken around the ML. LRSI price pressure is still very high and ASIA/LON has a positive bias so if the signal is not resolved before ASIA/LON, I'll open 1 /YI (if LRSI(.7)/MO) look safe.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

AG




A close above the dotted yellow line line (ASIA/LON) session should to borrow another phrase I heard from a banker once bring"hookers and cocaine".

USDX AG setup





I expect AG mini fut.(/YI) to make the best percentage move ahead of NFP on Fri. True to form the numbers should be stellar and expect a correction. The previous SLW and /YG should be a good place to plug-in the hedge-o-matic. As the eloquent youth of the day say "take'er easy or take'er sleazy"


TBT




I forgot I pulled this before the new year (dumb ass). If the /DX keeps accelerating I'll be back in.

AG




Scalp the fire out of this one.

NetFlix (good/bad)







src data here link

The goals is to see if NetFlix is ripping us off by incorrectly pricing their product based on the number of Hollywood releases and the quality of their releases over time. This is highly subjective, the criteria i used:


kids - is is a kids film and appropriate ?
good - is it a good film (enjoyable?)
bad - is it a bad film (forgettable?)
sequel - is it a rehash of the same plot?
nc - was this re-release, a TV movie released to film

1.) The (nc) sum is subtracted from the sum of all categories - they don't count.
2.) To start we look at the subjective quality of the films, are they getting better or worse ?




3.) Next let's look at the level of original creative output, I hate sequel's if they wan't my time and money, impress me with something I can't get from a book or YouTube.



Conclusion:

Volume down, Quality down, originality ( looks like creative slush that's cycled YOY )

Next
Is this a value?

E-mail me if you want the spreadsheet and you can plug-in you own numbers.

Save and Loose

If there is any doubt that you are NOT totally on your own at this point, playing against the house ( with respect to your finances), read this from Zero Hedge link.

If you save - you are playing against the house.
If you invest - (L Term) you are playing against the house.

In real terms you are baked, your only hope for alpha is to grab a volume on financial engineering, derive complex strategies picking at the fat and momentum of overvalued derivatives. There appears to me to be a totally new fundamental variable in all markets a 3rd presence - the machine, for retail investors (strike that quants), inertial oscillators that measure pressure against support resistance levels on momentum work very well - ferret the risk away with you favorite hedge trick.

It's amazing to me how readily smart people criticize with out offering alternatives. The all is not lost, we can use the same statistical measures to create a cash equivalent strategy (inertial oscillators + support resistance levels on momentum).

The assumption that must be taken de-facto is that this is a monetary event (regardless of political view, your political view at this point should be politics of survival). The goal is to balance the risk R over the G/S ratio over cash (S Term T yield), this will yield a fraction, the remainder will be the balance of cash you should hold in a local bank depository account. The trick is to have this number cover monthly expenses. The G/S ratio less the trade premium tells you if move from G to S that month.

You need to use the HSBC account hack to avoid bank charges. The key is moving the budget amount inflation adjusted from the G/S holding leaving the remainder. Your monthly goal should be to go through your statements each month and looks for services to cut. Do you really need a Netflix account? Based on the number of new release this year does it make sense to carry the premium subscription.

Don't know, what I do know, is that NetFlix is betting on you being a total analytical moron and you will keep paying the premium for a service that has dwindling supply (spread sheet to follow).

Once you cut a cost adjust your budget to reflect the number. Why does this work? All currencies are falling in real terms, what you want essentially is to freeze the float. Your float then stands a chance of protecting your purchasing power.

Consider the alternatives (S Term Tbills, MM, T only MM (obsoleted), (S Term) FX CDs). Liquidity is an issue so (FX CDs, S Term Tbills) are out. This is just one quick look at a single option, it's a pain, it's a lot more work but if you do nothing you are guaranteed to loose, you are playing/gambling against the house.

Monday, January 4, 2010

USDX




The momentum (dark think blue line) under the MA (dark thick orange line) looks to me to be accelerating. The small spec. on USDCHF is about 1.07% positive. It looks like the USDX may be rolling over but until the LRSI hits .8 it's a gamble. The speed of the line suggests to me a sharp leg down is on the way but I'm waiting until the odds are on my side. I still have UUP long calls in place in case I'm reading it incorrectly.