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Sunday, May 16, 2010

GBP EUR


I looks to me like the GBP will play catch-up with the EUR ... The ETF FXB is the only short option I can find?

Friday, May 14, 2010

AU


If AU || YI hits 1220 I'm a buyer, the situation in Europe appears to be grim, my guess that they are starting to panic and the run to gold and silver will happen soon (1-2 months) just based on the noise in European media - bullshit analysis maybe or just a gut felling.

The ML line drawn is saying the same thing to me the candle pattern heretofore dubbed the "WTF" candle. What makes me lean positive is that we did not see a big price advance. With luck we will get entries around 1220 (price can over shoot so don't freak-out f it moves lower). The volatility week to week should get crazy per Armstrong and Sinclair 1240 - 1260 highs in LON should be expected. This should set-up a couple of good cycle trades for runs of 20$ - take-em while they last.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

#92


This uranium is still undervalued, no options chain that sucks. Put this in you 'Peak Oil' portfolio if you have one, they are domestic and as time passes I'm betting that becomes more a feature of their price vs. lbs. out of the ground.

Fast way to get exposure to AU || AG


If you are looking to get trading exposure to AU || AG NOT protection, Oanda is IMHO is the way to go you can trade any fraction of a contract and manage scaling into a position w/o a lot of risk (see the chart), these trade are long running swing trades. You can buy as little as 1 unit.

Make sure your leverage is set below 20, 10 is better, add on pull backs and breaches of the ML. Think of it as dollar cost avg into it trade only 1 pos per week as a limit (or some limit duration).

The chart is AG, the first entry was wrong so I waited and tried again until I got it with small pos. sizes at first , increase your pos. sizes on some multiplier as you profit grows and keep the stops tighter as you scale in.

At this point I would set stops with a pitchfork AG is very volatile so trade a longer time frame or you will get stopped out and die a death of a thousand cuts.

XAUUSD || /YG



The think yellow line is the Andrews ML, the longer term chart shows a red and yellow projection, the red projection starts @ 6/28/09 and fell apart 11/3/09 when price went parabolic -thats bad because what goes up comes down or in Andrews term reverts to the mean.

If the price jumps over the ML on FRI odds are it's going for the price target of around 1260, if it does that I would not chase the price unless you have positions in play. Best case scenario is for the price cycle around the ML until early next week and then start working up, that would put the price target around 1280 and reset strong support in the 1230 area.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

I'm Back

I'll have more un-censored time on my hands in the coming weeks - so it looks I'm back!